Apple is set to release its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, July 31. With modest growth expected, all eyes are on AI investments, trade tensions, and margin pressures. Zain Vawda, Market Analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, provides a comprehensive breakdown of what to expect from Apple’s upcoming earnings.
“Apple (AAPL) will release its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, July 31, 2025, after the market closes. This report covers April to June, a quieter period before Apple’s big fall product launches.
Analysts expect Apple to show modest year-over-year growth in Q3 FY25. Earnings per share (EPS) are predicted to be $1.42–$1.43, slightly up from $1.40 last year. Revenue is forecasted at $88.92–$89.18 billion, matching Apple’s guidance for “low to mid-single-digit” growth. Gross margins are expected to be 45.5%–46.5%, factoring in a $900 million tariff impact.
The Services segment is expected to lead growth with double-digit revenue, estimated at $26.9–$27.5 billion. iPhone sales should see slight growth, helped by promotions and the new iPhone 16e. Mac sales are also expected to rise, thanks to M4 chip upgrades. However, iPad revenue is likely to drop after a strong previous quarter.
Apple’s expected gross margin for Q3 FY25 (45.5%-46.5%) is slightly lower than Q2 FY25 (47.1%) due to a $900 million tariff impact. This shows that geopolitical trade tensions are now directly affecting Apple’s profitability.
The company is absorbing these extra costs, which is reducing its margins. This highlights the challenge Apple faces in keeping its high profits in a complicated global trade environment and emphasizes the importance of its efforts to diversify its supply chain.
Apple is shifting iPhone production to India and Vietnam. By 2027, 25% of iPhones are expected to be made in India. Apple is also investing $500 billion in U.S. facilities, including a new AI server factory in Texas.
Apple is heavily investing in AI, focusing on features like Siri upgrades, Live Translation, and tools for smarter apps and photos. However, delays in AI rollouts and talent losses to competitors like Meta pose challenges. Privacy-focused on-device AI limits Apple compared to rivals, but its AI-powered Apple Silicon remains a key strength.
The tech market is growing, with global IT spending expected to rise 9.3% in 2025, driven by AI and software demand. Consumer interest in smart-home, gaming, and health-tech devices aligns with Apple’s ecosystem strategy, offering opportunities in AI-enabled wearables.
Apple continues strong shareholder returns, with $29 billion in Q2 FY25 buybacks and dividends, plus a $100 billion repurchase plan. Analysts remain optimistic, with a $230.92 price target (9.3% upside). Shares trade near $212.48, with resistance at $215-$216 and potential to retest $250 highs if momentum builds.
From a technical standpoint, Apples share price has been in a period of consolidation since late April. 2025 has not been an easy year for Apple shares given its exposure to China and concerns about a trade war.
Now looking ahead and a positive trade deal with China coupled with trade deals with a host of other countries could set the tone for a bullish breakout.
Furthermore, a positive earnings release and a plan for AI may be what is needed for bulls to return to the fold and push prices back toward 2025 highs.”