The first batch of entries for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival undoubtedly paint a worrying picture for northern horse racing trainers.
The meeting has been dominated by Irish stables in recent years, most notably by the all-conquering Willie Mullins operation.
He led the way in 2024 as Irish handlers won 18 of the 27 races at the four-day meeting and a similar outcome is expected this time around.
The latest Cheltenham Festival betting odds highlight that Mullins has fancied runners in more than half of the races at the annual National Hunt showpiece.
His dominance reflects the ever-widening chasm between the quality of horse racing in the Republic of Ireland compared to the United Kingdom.
This has made it more difficult for northern stables to compete on an equal footing with the big guns whenever major meetings are staged.
Trainer Donald McCain Jnr’s thoroughly dismal Cheltenham Festival record in recent years highlights this point to perfection.
McCain saddled Ballabriggs and Peddlers Cross to victory at the meeting in 2010, before suffering a staggeringly poor record in subsequent years.
Of the 12 runners he sent to the Festival between 2013 and 2019, just one finished in the first four. Unsurprisingly, he has swerved the meeting in the last five years.
Malcolm Jefferson, Ferdy Murphy and John Quinn all bucked the trend during the same time frame, but their successes were sporadic rather than regular occurrences.
With northern runners fairly thin on the ground this year, the recent trend is likely to continue unless the meeting produces a series of surprise results.
Potential Grade 1 victories are extremely thin on the ground, with only three northern-trained horses in line to compete at the top level.
Lucinda Russell’s Ahoy Senor is entered in the Ryanair Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup, but is unlikely to trouble the fancied runners in either race.
Ruth Jefferson has entered Kerryhill in the Stayers’ Hurdle while McCain’s Maximilian could run in the same race, but both horses are long-shots in the ante-post betting.
The best hope of a northern-trained winner at this year’s meeting is Sine Nomine, who is bidding to go back-to-back in the St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase.
Fiona Needham’s nine-year-old has had a difficult 2024/25 campaign, unseating on her seasonal reappearance at Market Rasen before falling at Wetherby over the festive period.
Sine Nomine has been given plenty of time to recover from those mishaps, and could be dangerous at Cheltenham if Needham can iron out her recent jumping issues.
The aforementioned Russell is arguably the north’s best hope of recording a winner following her recent successes the meeting.
Russell’s Corach Rambler won the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2022 and 2023, and Russell is eyeing another victory in the race with Apple Away.
The mare finished second at Newbury during January to take her Listed chase record to one win, three seconds, a third and a fifth-place finish.
Apple Away is the type of horse Russell excels with and it would be no surprise to see her run well at a decent price in the Ultima.
Whistle Stop Tour, Myretown and El Elefante are other runners from the Russell stable who could take up engagements at Cheltenham.
However, northern successes at the meeting will likely be thin on the ground once again given the strength of the top Irish stables.