I have said this many times before when it comes to sports and sports betting, the NFL is King. There is so much build-up and excitement when the NFL season begins. Whether you are a Fantasy Football nut, a survivor pool champion, or an avid sports bettor/gambler, the NFL has something to offer everyone.
One of the aspects of the NFL that is gaining popularity is NFL Future and Season-Long props bets.
Some of these include
- Team Win Totals
- Season Long Player Performances
- Super Bowl Winners
- Coach of the Year
- MVP
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Rookie of the Year.
What I find fun and entertaining is looking and season-long player props.
First, what is a player prop?
Prop bets are wagers or bets placed on anything other than the typical point spreads, totals, or money line bets. The most common type of NFL prop bet is player props. This allows bettors to wager on what individual NFL players will accomplish within a single game or throughout the entire season.
Below is an example of a season-long player prop for Tom Brady this season.
Below, I will walk you through my Top 10 Season-long players props for the 2022-2023 NFL Season.
Nick Chubb Under 10.5 Rushing TDs
Nick Chubb is one of the best Running backs in the NFL, but I think his rushing TD prop number is too high, which is set at 10.5 at most sportsbooks. Chubb is entering his 5th year with the Browns and has only topped this number once.
We are not sure who will be playing QB for the Cleveland Browns. Still, whether Deshaun Watson or Jacoby Brissett, both of them could steal some rushing touchdowns away from Chubb down in the RedZone or around the Goal Line, as both QBs are significant and have rushing ability.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receiving TDs
It is officially Trey Lance season. Kyle Shanahan announced that Trey Lance would be the 49ers starting QB heading into the 2022 season, permitting Jimmy G to seek a trade.
Early training camp reports say that Trey Lance has built great chemistry with 3rd-year receiver Brandon Aiyuk and looks to be his first option. Combine that great news and that Aiyuk has caught five touchdowns in his first two seasons; the over 4.5 looks very tasty.
DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receiving TDs
The Carolina Panthers had the worst QB play in the NFL last season. Sam Darnold finished 29th in EPA per dropback and ranked 36th out of 40 qualified QBs in EPA per attempt with no pressure. Not only was Darnold awful, but in the few games Cam Newton returned, he was even worse. Newton Ranked 39th out of 40 in EPA per attempt with no pressure.
DJ Moore caught three TDs in the first four games of the season and only managed to haul in one more for the rest of the season. With better QB play from Baker Mayfield, I would have to imagine that Moore tops this 4.5 number.
Trey Lance Over 3500.5 Passing Yards
As I mentioned, Kyle Shanahan handed Trey Lance the keys to the 49ers’ offense. We know Shanahan likes to run the ball, and he may do so more in the early part of the season to let the 2nd year QB get comfortable. Eventually, they will let Lance loose. Lance must average 206 passing yards per game to top this number. He threw 157, 192, and 249 yards in his three starts last season.
For what it’s worth, in both seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo played at least 15 games under Kyle Shanahan and threw for at least 3800 yards.
Courtland Sutton Over 925.5 Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton will be heading into his 5th season, and in 2022, he will have one of the best QBs in the league throwing to him, Russell Wilson.
Sutton has hit over 900 receiving yards once in his career, but he has had some bad guys throwing him the ball.
Below is a list of Quarterbacks Courtland Sutton has had over his four-year career.
- Case Keenum
- Brandon Allen
- Joe Flacco
- Jeff Driskel
- Drew Lock
- Teddy Bridgewater
Everyone on that list is average at best. Over the last two seasons, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf averaged over 1000 yards with Russell Wilson as their QB, and I think Sutton should have no problem doing the same with Wilson as his QB.
Adam Thielen Over 750.5 Receiving yards
Adam Thielen had 726 yards in just 13 games last year before getting hurt. With new Head Coach Kevin O’Connell saying they will pass more and run more 3-WR sets, Thielen is massively underrated right now.
Last season former Head Coach Mike Zimmer ran the 5th lowest 3-WR formations in all football. As the Rams’ offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell ran it 86% of the time, which was the highest in the league in 2021.
Trevor Lawrence under 14.5 Interceptions
Trevor Lawrence threw 17 interceptions last year and would be the first QB since 2015-16 seasons to throw 15 or more INTs if he hits the cover of 14.5 in 2022. Lawrence was at a disadvantage with a terrible HC and now gets a massive upgrade with a QB-friendly HC in Doug Pederson.
Aaron Jones under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns.
AJ Dillion had more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones in 2021. Dillion had five, and Jones had four. I expect Dillion to get most of the RedZone and goal-line carries while Jones remains a receiving threat.
Dillion’s usage spiked from year one to year two. After 48 touches in his rookie year, his touches ballooned to 221. I expect Dillions’ touches to increase as well in year 3.
Matt Ryan over 3900.5 Passing Yards
Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of this offense. But there is a reason why the Colts went out and traded for Matt Ryan.
He failed to do so in the rare moments when the Colts needed to rely on their former QB Carson Wentz to make plays. That’s where Matt Ryan comes into play; despite Ryan getting older, he is still one of the game’s most reliable and accurate passers.
In 2021, Carson Wentz was 32nd in success rate and accuracy on non-play action passes, while Ryan was seventh. Wentz is 31st in success rate and accuracy on passes thrown of 10 yards or more; Ryan was third.
Not to mention that the Colts are expected to play the seventh-easiest passing defense schedule in 2022.
Tom Brady under 4650.5 Passing Yards
In his 22nd season, Tom Brady threw a career-high 5,316 yards. In 2021, Birthday will lose two of his top 4 receiving options as Antonio Brown left the team and Gronk announced his retirement. On top of that, Chris Godwin will be out some time due to injury. Father time has to catch up with The GOAT eventually.
Tips on NFL Futures
Below are some of the best tips we can offer when betting on NFL Futures.
- Be selective. Don’t tie up your entire bankroll all season betting NFL Future Bets. Select 3-5 of your best or favorites and only bet those.
- When placing your future bets, bet them as close to the start of the regular season. You don’t want to lose out on money due to an injury during training camp or a preseason game.
- Don’t make contradicting bets. If you place a bet on the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl, don’t make another bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC Conference.
- Also, shop for the best lines or odds. Access to multiple sportsbooks so that you can shop for the best line or odds is extremely important.
Betting too many NFL Futures may do more harm than good. While they can be more lucrative because of the higher odds, more risk is involved, and more uncertainties could happen during a season.
In conclusion, research other experts’ strategies, implement your system or process, and with extensive research, you should have better luck in becoming profitable long-term when placing NFL Futures.