Football is very nearly back in the English Premier League. After everything came to a dramatic halt after the round of games that was completed at the end of the first week in March, teams are back in training, and players are preparing to close out the season behind closed doors. In a lot of ways, it feels like it’s been longer than three months since we last saw a professional game in England, and that the country itself has changed almost beyond all recognition since then. For one club, though, things haven’t changed enough. That club is Newcastle United.
It’s no secret that the club is in the middle of a takeover. Much-hated chairman Mike Ashley has finally agreed to sell his share in the club to a consortium of investors based in Saudi Arabia and headed by Amanda Staveley. The price is right, Ashley wants to get the deal done, and the buyers haven’t pulled out. So much progress has been made on the agreement that a new high-profile manager (thought to be Mauricio Pochettino) is believed to be on standby, and world-class players like former Liverpool star Philippe Coutinho have allegedly been sounded out about making big-money moves to the Magpies. The consortium made their (reportedly) £300m offer nine weeks ago, and everyone thought that the deal would be done by now. The only thing standing in its way is the official seal of approval by the Premier League. That seal of approval still hasn’t come, and there have recently been whispers that it might never come at all. Could the deal be dead?
Although everybody involved in the takeover is remaining upbeat about the prospects of it going through in public, behind the scenes it’s thought to be a different story. Ashley, who thought he’d have his money by now, is frustrated with the delay. The buyers are equally frustrated, and there’s a danger that if they begin to believe that the Premier League doesn’t want to welcome them to the owners club, they might turn their attention to a different team in a different country. As the players prepare to return to competitive action, current manager Steve Bruce is taking training and expects to remain in his post for the remainder of the season. Managers are often the last people to hear of their fate, but if Bruce has been given the go-ahead to continue planning for the weeks ahead, it probably suggests that somebody in the chain of command knows that nothing is likely to happen in the immediate future.
The reasons that the deal has been held up are complicated and serve as a reminder that nothing is ever simple in the world of Premier League football, even when the financial side of a purchase has been agreed upon. Processes like this are comparable to a high-stakes online slots game. Investors – and especially foreign investors – are attracted to buying English clubs for the same reason that people play online slots; if you spend your money in the right place and everything lines up in your favor, the financial returns are enormous. Because the financial returns can be so huge, people sometimes get blinded to the other side of online slots, which is that sometimes you’ll walk away with less money than you started with no matter how much you spend on them, and whatever the stated rate of return is. Ownership is a gamble even with all the season ticket and television money that pours into every Premier League club. The longer this delay goes on, the more likely it is that the consortium turns cool on the risk.
The Premier League hasn’t made an official comment on the reason for the delay, but the prospect of the takeover has some high-profile, outspoken opponents. Most of the opposition stems from the fact that the prospective new owners come from Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia has a dire human rights record. Despite the country’s recent attempts to modernize its image by attracting high-profile sporting events, the idea of Saudi Arabia as a progressive country was badly damaged by the state-sponsored murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the actions of the nation’s military forces in Yemen. The perceived oppression of women and LGBT people within the country is also a constant source of concern for international observers, and there are some who feel that the Premier League approving the takeover would be equivalent to condoning the actions of the Saudi government. It might be a different story if the investors were an independent group, but they belong to the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund group, which is directly tied to the Saudi crown. It’s a minefield for the Premier League to navigate in terms of public relations, and it’s unsurprising that they’ve agonized over the deal for so long – and continue to do so.
If the takeover does collapse, Newcastle’s prospects for next season look dramatically different. Everybody expected the club to be relegated this term. Steve Bruce and his players have arguably over-delivered thus far this term, with the team looking safe from relegation unless they suffer a complete collapse in terms of results and form. Next season they might not be so lucky. Some players will leave, and attracting replacements is likely or be difficult. Ashley won’t want to invest more money in transfer recruitment if his priority is to sell the club as quickly as possible, and high-profile players are unlikely to want to join a club that’s in chaos behind the scenes. Players like to know that the manager who signs them is secure in their position, and their new side is a stable one. Newcastle can’t guarantee either of those things at the moment.
The deal may still go through, and if it does next season will be a very exciting one for members of the Toon Army everywhere. With a new manager and a sprinkling of expensive, exciting new players, Newcastle United might become a force in the same way that they were during the (nearly) glorious years of the mid-1990s. Without the takeover cash, though, it’s a lot harder to feel optimistic. The longer this delay goes on for, the more nervous it will become for the club’s long-suffering fans.