🏎️ F1 Mexico GP 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win in Mexico?

Introduction: A High-Altitude Showdown in the Heart of Mexico

The Formula 1 season is entering its final stretch, and the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing races of the year. The circuit’s unique combination of long straights, slow-speed corners, and a breathtaking elevation of 2,240 metres above sea level makes it a true test of both man and machine.

As the title fight intensifies, all eyes are on Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, who has historically dominated this venue, and on McLaren’s rising duo — Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri — who are determined to rewrite the script. But Ferrari, Mercedes, and Aston Martin aren’t far behind.

So, who will master the thin air and passionate atmosphere of Mexico City? Let’s dive into the predictions, data trends, and team performances that could shape the 2025 F1 Mexico GP.

The Track: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez – Fast, Technical, and Unforgiving

Few circuits on the F1 calendar blend speed and spectacle quite like the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. Originally opened in 1962 and named after racing brothers Ricardo and Pedro Rodríguez, the track features 17 turns across a 4.3km layout — with two long DRS zones and the famous stadium section where thousands of fans roar as drivers pass through the Foro Sol.

Key challenges include:

• High altitude: The air is 25% thinner than at sea level, drastically reducing downforce and engine power.

• Brake temperatures: Cars struggle to cool under such conditions, forcing teams to tweak ducting and strategy.

• Tyre wear: The combination of heat and low grip can make tyre management a deciding factor.

In other words, the Mexico GP often rewards technical precision and clever race strategy over outright speed. That’s why some teams — especially McLaren and Red Bull — may hold an edge this year.

Team Form Heading Into Mexico

🔴 Red Bull Racing

Even after a turbulent mid-season, Red Bull arrive in Mexico as favourites. Verstappen has won multiple times here and thrives under the unique conditions that neutralise other teams’ aero advantages.
Yuki Tsunoda’s steady progression as Verstappen’s teammate gives Red Bull flexibility in strategy — allowing one car to defend or attack undercut scenarios. Expect Red Bull’s straight-line speed and Verstappen’s control to shine.

🧡 McLaren

McLaren have arguably been the story of 2025. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have regularly challenged Red Bull, taking podiums and even wins in recent rounds. Their aerodynamic package has proven versatile, and the team’s tactical calls have been razor sharp.
Mexico’s thin air might reduce McLaren’s downforce advantage, but their tyre management and corner entry stability could see both Norris and Piastri fight at the front.

❤️ Ferrari

Ferrari’s resurgence continues under the leadership of Fred Vasseur. Charles Leclerc remains their spearhead, while Lewis Hamilton, now in red, has brought both experience and technical insight. Ferrari’s power unit improvements make them competitive on the straights — essential in Mexico. However, they may struggle in the slower stadium section where traction and cooling become critical.

🩶 Mercedes

The Silver Arrows have endured an up-and-down year, but both George Russell and young star Kimi Antonelli are extracting more performance each weekend. Mercedes’ efficiency on medium-speed tracks could help them stay in the top ten, though they may lack that final tenth to challenge McLaren or Red Bull outright.

💚 Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso continues to deliver consistency, often finishing inside the points even when Aston Martin lack top-tier pace. Mexico’s braking-heavy nature may suit their car better than previous rounds, putting Alonso on course for another solid finish.

Weather and Strategy: What to Expect in Mexico City

Late October in Mexico typically brings warm days (up to 26°C) and a chance of afternoon showers. Rain isn’t common, but if it arrives, the high altitude and long straights can make conditions treacherous — as we’ve seen in previous races.

Pirelli are bringing the C3, C4, and C5 compounds — the softest in their range — meaning strategy will centre on tyre degradation and undercut potential. With a one-stop race likely for most, pit lane efficiency and timing could decide the final order.

Our Top 10 Prediction for the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix

🥇 1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

There’s no ignoring his track record — Verstappen is the king of Mexico. His car’s straight-line strength and his ability to manage tyres in high-temperature conditions make him the logical favourite. Expect another controlled, clinical drive from the Dutchman, potentially sealing another crucial win in the championship race.

🥈 2. Lando Norris (McLaren)

Norris has become one of F1’s most complete drivers. His pace over a race distance has been exceptional, and if McLaren can match Red Bull’s top speed down the 1.2km straight, he could push Verstappen all the way. A small error or safety car could even tip the win his way.

🥉 3. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Piastri’s calm composure and growing confidence have turned him into a consistent podium contender. Expect him to back Norris strongly, and possibly even challenge him depending on tyre strategy. McLaren’s teamwork will be crucial — a clean qualifying session could see both cars on the front two rows.

4️⃣ Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Ferrari’s performance has improved since mid-season, and Leclerc’s qualifying prowess may put him near the front. However, tyre degradation and the team’s sometimes erratic pit strategy could keep him just shy of the podium. Still, a strong weekend for Leclerc seems likely.

5️⃣ George Russell (Mercedes)

Russell’s pace in high-downforce circuits has been steady, and Mexico could suit his smoother driving style. Expect a quiet but effective race, capitalising on any mistakes from the frontrunners.

6️⃣ Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Hamilton’s first season with Ferrari has been a rollercoaster, but Mexico could play to his strengths. He has a deep understanding of how to manage tyres in hot conditions and might fight for a top five if strategy goes his way.

7️⃣ Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

The young Italian continues to impress. While the Autódromo’s complexity may expose his inexperience, Antonelli’s qualifying form and cool temperament could earn him another strong points finish — and perhaps a symbolic battle with Alonso or Hamilton.

8️⃣ Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull)

Often overlooked, Tsunoda’s consistency has quietly improved. In the upgraded Red Bull chassis, he could benefit from strategy or attrition ahead. Mexico’s layout also suits his aggressive driving style and braking control.

9️⃣ Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Alonso thrives in chaotic races, and Mexico has a habit of delivering just that. Expect the veteran to pick off opportunities, particularly if the leaders trip over each other or safety cars shake up strategy.

🔟 Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams or Ferrari depending on final 2025 placement)

Sainz’s adaptability and track knowledge make him a safe bet for points. His ability to extract performance from any package often pays off in unpredictable races like this.

Potential Wildcards and Dark Horses

While the top ten looks relatively predictable, the Mexico Grand Prix has a history of surprises. Here are a few names who could disrupt the order:

• Alex Albon (Williams): Strong on long straights; could qualify well.

• Esteban Ocon (Alpine): Alpine’s improved mechanical grip could help on the slower corners.

• Nico Hülkenberg (Haas): If chaos unfolds, his experience might sneak him into the top ten.

A well-timed safety car or sudden rain shower could completely transform the pecking order, as seen in 2019 and 2022.

Why Verstappen Still Holds the Edge

Even in a tighter field, Verstappen’s synergy with Mexico is remarkable. His understanding of how to modulate throttle and balance at altitude is almost unmatched. Red Bull’s engine mapping and aerodynamic package are optimised for thin air, and Verstappen’s precision in managing brake temperatures has been key to his repeated success here.

Unless Red Bull encounter a setup issue or strategy blunder, Verstappen remains the man to beat.

Key Battles to Watch

• McLaren vs. Red Bull: Expect intense wheel-to-wheel action in the opening laps as both teams fight for track position.

• Ferrari internal duel: Leclerc vs. Hamilton will draw attention — both want to prove leadership within the team.

• Mercedes youth vs. experience: Russell and Antonelli have been closely matched; their inter-team rivalry is a story to follow.

• Midfield melee: Aston Martin, Williams, Alpine, and Haas are separated by fine margins — qualifying will be critical.

Historical Context: Why Mexico Always Delivers

Since rejoining the F1 calendar in 2015, the Mexico GP has become a fan favourite. The stadium section, where drivers pass within metres of 30,000 roaring spectators, creates one of the most electric atmospheres in world sport.

Past winners have often been championship contenders — Hamilton, Verstappen, and Rosberg — highlighting how crucial Mexico can be in the title narrative. Its unpredictable mix of high-speed sections and tight hairpins often triggers unexpected drama, safety cars, and bold overtakes.

Predictions Summary