After months of threats, which included the seizure of oil tankers, and air-strikes on alleged drug boats, on January 3rd, the United States removed Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s leader, and charged him with drug trafficking offences.
Dr Omar Hammoud Gallego is an Assistant Professor in Public Policy in the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University. His research focuses on migration and politics across Latin America, including the Venezuelan migratory crisis.
He commented: “Instead of heralding a new democratic era for Venezuela, Trump’s actions have led to a shift in leader while keeping the complete structure of the previous authoritarian regime in place.
“Nearly a quarter of Venezuela’s population – close to eight million people – have fled their homes since 2015. It is the largest migratory exodus in the Western Hemisphere in recent history. Now, as far-right political parties rise across Latin America, fuelled in part by backlash against these very migrants, the region faces a dangerous inflection point.
“Enter Donald Trump and three scenarios seem possible.
“First, a continuation of the status quo. Trump’s abduction of Maduro has so far led to no shifts in the current power structure. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice-president, was swiftly recognised as the successor, with the rest of the regime’s key figures keeping their positions. If this situation solidifies and oil production does not increase, as Trump suggests it will, a continuous stream of Venezuelans leaving their country seems inevitable.
“Second, regime change could somewhat surprisingly take place, leading to the gradual re-establishment of democratic and state institutions, such as the national assembly, the judiciary and the military. Opposition leader and Nobel-prize winner Maria Corina Machado and the rightfully elected president of Venezuela Edmundo González could return to lead the country out of its current mess. This best case – and very unlikely – scenario would see many Venezuelan migrants gradually starting to come back to help reconstruct their nation.
“Third, the worst-case scenario: Maduro’s abduction leads to an internal power struggle that could lead to protracted instability and internal conflict. While the current Venezuelan opposition and some analysts have downplayed the risk of a “Libya style scenario”, it would be wrong to dismiss it outright. This case would see Venezuelan migration skyrocket, leading to further regional instability.
“Except for the second scenario, the losers are always Venezuelans, both at home and among the country’s extensive diaspora. Instead of exploiting Maduro’s absence to push for democratic reform, the American “de facto” act of war has been wasted on a cinematographic abduction with little to show for it. Trump’s recent claim that Venezuela will deliver an estimated 50 million barrels of oil to the US whose proceeds will be controlled by him, compounds the unpredictability of the situation.”