A 12-month snapshot of small business outlook from Novuna Business Finance
Confidence among small businesses in the North East significantly improved over the past three quarters of 2024 according to tracking research from Novuna Business Finance. The percentage of small businesses anticipating growth within the next three months had more than doubled, rising from 19% in Q2 2024 to 36% in Q4 2024. This proportion exceeded the national average for Q4 2024 (35%) after having trailed it earlier in the year.
Election Bounce
The largest increase occurred between Q2 and Q3 of 2024, coinciding with the General Election period, when the proportion of businesses anticipating growth rose from 19% to 31%.
Business Confidence Over Time
| Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
| 33% | 35% | 43% | 44% | 41% | 39% | 33% | 32% | 29% | 29% | 35% | 30% | 36% | 19% | 31% |
Working on securing future growth
A large proportion indicated that they had plans to grow their businesses through 2024
Key growth plans being actioned:
- Keep fixed costs down (30%)
- Improve cash flow (20%).
- Reassessing finance commitments (12%)
Tackling the barriers
Set against positive growth plans many enterprises said they also faced barriers to growth
- high fixed costs and overheads – 27% (vs. 20% national average).
- still struggling with the long-term impact of COVID-19 on their business operations (19%).
Less Likely to Be Kept Awake with Worry
Business owners in the North East were less likely than the national average to report being kept up at night with worries about their businesses. Among those who did, 29% pointed to general economic volatility—lower than the national average of 35%. Other significant concerns included managing cash flow (26%) and retaining business (25%).
Jo Morris: Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance comments: “The resurgence of business confidence in the North East was a positive sign, highlighting the region’s resilience and potential for growth as it surpassed the national average. However, challenges like high fixed costs and the lingering effects of COVID-19 remained hurdles that needed addressing to sustain this upward momentum.”
“Nationally, the last four months have been a period of relative positivity and consistency for UK small businesses. For the last two consecutive quarters, 35% of small business owners have told us they forecast growth, which represents a marked upturn from 30% before July – and the years between Covid and the cost-of-living crisis, which was a period stagnation in terms of small business growth forecasts.
The findings are from the Novuna Business Barometer study which has been tracking small business outlook for the last 10 years. The nationally representative survey asks 1,000 small business owners each about their growth predictions every three months.